A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
